Estonian election results put in context
While across Europe the center-right , far-right and green parties are celebrating their election victories with the center-left suffering a historic defeat. In Estonia the big winners are the center- left party and an independent candidate, with the greens and center right showing weak results.
This may seem quite odd to most Europeans and may be written off as further proof to some of failed integration of Eastern Europe, but actually the result makes perfect sense when put into perspective through the local political context. Like elsewhere in Europe the voters voted with their pocket books - the state of the economy was the central issue.
Left wing won based on voter dissatisfaction with the economy
Center-left party (Keskerakond) won the election with 103 525 votes. Their campaign capitalized on the dissatisfaction with the ruling coalition’s inability to deal with the economic crisis which has resulted with drastic pre-election buget cuts of popular programs.
Protest vote went to Independents
The same protest vote that showed the extent of voter anger and frustration with the continuing economic crisis and high unemployment fueling gains by far right in Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Hungary, Denmark, Slovakia and Finland was the force also behind the independent candidate Indrek Tarand’s 102 509 votes. Estonia has a fairly small foreign-labor population (no Turkish, Polish or Algerian laborers here to blame for high-unemployment) so the anti-foreigner anti-immigrant theme was not picked up by any parties for their election propaganda.
Ruling right wing parties lost due to the economic crisis
The center-right (Reform and IRL) parties’ coalition has been in power since before the beginning of the economic crisis. The right wing parties that were elected into office under the promise to get “Estonia into the top 5 wealthiest nations in Europe in 5 years” were punished by the voters facing the stark reality of salary, pension and benefit cuts. Therefore, it was inevitable that the voters blame the center-right for its inability to deal with the economic crisis, and the draconian budget cuts that have now been implemented. This voter backlash explains why the right wing parties did not triumph in Estonian elections, but were glad to just hang on to their seats. In the final tally the Reform party received 60 899 votes and IRL 48 489 votes.
Greens have failed to win economic credibility with the voters
The Green party is still seen by the average Estonian voter as a one-issue novelty group than a legitimate political force that can realistically propose and drive through a full platform of economic and social reforms for the entire nation. Many people also associate the Greens with their leader Marek Strandberg who is seen as a good public speaker as well as a vocal and intelligent critic, but unable to find the necessary political compromises to actually execute strategies.
In the end the Greens were unable to convince the voters that their ideas would bring back jobs and rapidly improve the Estonian economy, rather than making growth based on clean energy, agriculture and manufacturing slower and more expensive. As a result their votes totaled a mere 10 845.
Low voter turnout
Just like elsewhere in Europe voter turnout continued to fall as ever less people use their democratic rights to elect representatives. Only 43% of Estonia’s eligible voters voted (more than in 2004, but still rather low), on par with the low European turnout of 43%. Although it should be noted that Estonia pioneered Internet voting for these elections, and the electorate seems to have enthusiastically adopted the e-vote with over 14% of the voters casting their vote electronically.